Southwest Florida · Commercial & land desk · September 12, 2026
Cape Coral and Naples are two HPIs, not a cap rate
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Southwest Florida is a beat, not one official metro print. FHFA’s 2026 Q2 all-transactions table has Cape Coral-Fort Myers down 2.08% in the quarter and down 0.90% from a year earlier, rank 230. That is the weakest year-over-year row among the Florida metros this section named today. Naples-Marco Island is not in that ranked table. FRED’s reprint of the same FHFA all-transactions series shows a Naples index of 572.25 in 2026 Q2, 570.63 in 2026 Q1, and 567.47 in 2025 Q2. Two geographies. Two reads. No cap rate.
Takeout starts at the cited 10-year
4.73% is the last named 10-year CMT, August 28. 6.81% is the last named daily 30-year, used here only as analog pressure. A residual still needs a real spread.
What a residual still prices off
The last sourced 10-year CMT on this site is 4.73% on August 28. Saturday’s national commercial note already said a weekend residual cannot price the FOMC. An HPI quarter that ended in June does not become a term sheet. This desk will not invent a Lee County cap-rate survey, a Collier luxury index, or a rebuild-cost print from a house-price row.
Cape Coral’s five-year all-transactions change in the ranked table is 27.83%. That is not NOI. Public REIT filings and the Fed SLOOS remain the places for named credit facts when they publish.
What still sits on the purchase tape
The last official daily 30-year cited here is 6.81% as of August 28. Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year is 6.66% as of August 27. Friday already said the last weekday before the September 15–16 FOMC is not a lock. A Fort Myers brochure that treats a negative HPI year as a free option on Tuesday’s vote is still a brochure.
The opening local note already said insurance and rebuild facts need a dated filing. This page has not sourced a Citizens premium or a county millage. If a later OIR order or assessor table is cited, that fact gets its own note.
FAQ
Did FHFA publish one Southwest Florida house-price index?
No. Cape Coral-Fort Myers is a CBSA row in the 2026 Q2 all-transactions ranked table (−0.90% year, −2.08% quarter). Naples-Marco Island is cited here from FRED’s FHFA all-transactions reprint (index 572.25 in 2026 Q2 versus 567.47 in 2025 Q2).
Is either HPI a cap rate?
No. Takeout still starts from a named Treasury close. The last 10-year CMT cited here is 4.73% on August 28, 2026.
Sources: FHFA HPI summary tables, 2026 Q2 (Cape Coral-Fort Myers AT −0.90% year, −2.08% quarter, rank 230); FRED ATNHPIUS34940Q (FHFA all-transactions Naples-Marco Island index 572.25 (2026 Q2), 570.63 (2026 Q1), 567.47 (2025 Q2); updated August 25, 2026); Treasury daily CMT (10-year 4.73% on August 28, 2026); Mortgage News Daily daily rate index (30-year 6.81% as of August 28, 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly 30-year 6.66% as of August 27, 2026).