Commercial & land desk · September 12, 2026
A weekend residual cannot price the FOMC
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Saturday’s CRE note is about the leftover that still has to pencil while the curve is dark. Treasury does not publish a weekend daily yield curve. The next official 10-year CMT session is Monday. Friday already said a pre-FOMC residual is not a policy vote. Today’s split is the closed session: you can recut off 4.73% from August 28. You cannot mark the meeting. A brochure leftover that only works if Monday opens 40 basis points lower is still a hope trade.
Takeout starts at the cited 10-year
4.73% is the last named 10-year CMT, August 28. 6.81% is the last named daily 30-year, used here only as analog pressure. A residual still needs a real spread.
What can a Saturday package recut, and what can it not assume?
You can rerun sellout, NOI, and land leftover off 4.73% plus a spread a lender has actually granted. You can show a sensitivity if the 10-year moves after September 15–16. You cannot treat a chat-room open or a hoped-for cut as Treasury’s dated curve. September 5 already said the next official session after Labor Day was Tuesday. This weekend the next session is Monday. Thursday already said a committee approval is not a marked curve.
Wednesday already said a producer-price print is not takeout. This desk has sourced neither a new CMT nor a PPI figure. August flash PMI at 56 remains a goods-activity read, not a construction coupon. The residential 6.81% 30-year as of August 28 is analog pressure on housing-adjacent assets. Invent none of those as a weekend cap rate.
What this desk will not treat as this weekend’s mark-to-market
This desk will not invent a city cap-rate survey, a CMBS print, or a term sheet that assumes the 10-year already closed 40 basis points lower because the meeting is three calendar days away. Public REIT filings and the Fed SLOOS remain the places for named credit facts when they publish.
If Treasury publishes a dated weekday curve after Monday’s session or after the meeting, recut the residual then. Until that close is sourced here, a package that only works at 4.20% is still a hope vote on a dark curve.
FAQ
Is there a Saturday 10-year CMT print before FOMC week?
No. The last official 10-year CMT this site has cited is still 4.73% on August 28, 2026. The next official session is Monday.
Can a weekend residual assume the September FOMC already voted?
You can show a sensitivity. You cannot replace 4.73%. The meeting is September 15–16. A residual cannot vote.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (September 15–16, 2026 meeting); U.S. Treasury daily yield curve (10-year CMT 4.73% on August 28, 2026; no weekend close); S&P Global flash PMI (as reported on the August 24 lending note) (August flash PMI 56); Mortgage News Daily daily rate index (30-year analog 6.81% as of August 28, 2026).