Commercial & land desk · September 11, 2026
A pre-FOMC residual is not a policy vote
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Friday’s CRE note is about the leftover that still has to pencil before the meeting, not about inventing a close. The FOMC meets September 15–16. Sponsors will send weekend packages that assume a cut, a hold, or a hawkish statement. That is a scenario. It is not Treasury’s 10-year CMT. This site’s last named close is still 4.73% on August 28. Thursday already said a committee approval is not a marked curve. Today’s split is the policy calendar: a residual cannot vote.
What can a Friday package actually recut, and what can it not assume?
You can rerun sellout, NOI, and land leftover off 4.73% plus a spread a lender has actually granted. You can show a sensitivity if the 10-year moves after the meeting. You cannot treat a hoped-for cut as the close. Tuesday already said a reopened session is not a sourced curve. Wednesday already said a producer-price print is not takeout. This desk has sourced neither a new CMT nor a PPI figure.
August flash PMI at 56 remains a goods-activity read, not a construction coupon. The residential 6.81% 30-year as of August 28 is analog pressure on housing-adjacent assets. Friday’s labor print from last week has not been sourced here. Invent none of those as a pre-FOMC cap rate.
What this desk will not treat as this weekend’s mark-to-market
This desk will not invent a city cap-rate survey, a CMBS print, or a term sheet that assumes the 10-year already closed 40 basis points lower because the meeting is next week. Public REIT filings and the Fed SLOOS remain the places for named credit facts when they publish.
If Treasury publishes a dated weekday curve after the meeting, recut the residual then. Until that close is sourced here, a package that only works at 4.20% is still a hope vote on an unsourced weekend.
FAQ
Can I recut land today as if the September FOMC already voted?
You can show a sensitivity. The last official 10-year CMT this site has cited is still 4.73% on August 28, 2026, until a newer dated curve is sourced. The meeting is September 15–16.
Does a Friday residual replace 4.73% because FOMC week starts Monday?
No. A residual is math. A policy vote is next week. Keep the last sourced close plus a real spread until Treasury’s dated curve is cited here.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (September 15–16, 2026 meeting); U.S. Treasury daily yield curve (10-year CMT 4.73% on August 28, 2026; no sourced Friday close); S&P Global flash PMI (as reported on the August 24 lending note) (August flash PMI 56); Mortgage News Daily daily rate index (30-year analog 6.81% as of August 28, 2026).