Commercial & land desk · September 14, 2026
A Monday open is not the FOMC close
Last updated:
Monday’s CRE note is about the leftover that still has to pencil on a sourced curve, not about inventing Wednesday’s statement. Saturday already said a weekend residual cannot price the FOMC. Treasury is open today. FRED’s reprint of the 10-year CMT last prints 4.95% on September 10, updated September 11. That replaces the August 28 close of 4.73% earlier notes cited. Today’s session is not that dated curve, and it is not the September 15–16 vote.
Takeout starts at the cited 10-year
4.73% is the last named 10-year CMT, August 28. 6.81% is the last named daily 30-year, used here only as analog pressure. A residual still needs a real spread.
What can a Monday package recut, and what can it not assume?
You can rerun sellout, NOI, and land leftover off 4.95% plus a spread a lender has actually granted. You can show a sensitivity if the 10-year moves after September 15–16. You cannot treat a chat-room open, a hoped-for cut, or this morning’s screen as Treasury’s dated close. FRED’s next DGS10 release on this page is dated September 14. Until that close is sourced here, keep 4.95% on September 10.
Friday already said a pre-FOMC residual is not a policy vote. Thursday already said a committee approval is not a marked curve. The residential 7.12% 30-year as of September 11 is analog pressure on housing-adjacent assets. August flash PMI at 56 remains a goods-activity read, not a construction coupon. Invent none of those as a Monday cap rate.
What this desk will not treat as this morning’s mark-to-market
This desk will not invent a city cap-rate survey, a CMBS print, or a term sheet that assumes the 10-year already closed 40 basis points lower because the statement is Wednesday. Public REIT filings and the Fed SLOOS remain the places for named credit facts when they publish.
If FRED or Treasury publishes a newer dated weekday curve after today’s session or after the meeting, recut the residual then. Until that close is sourced here, a package that only works at 4.20% is still a hope vote.
FAQ
Is there a sourced Monday 10-year CMT close before the FOMC?
Not in this morning note. FRED’s DGS10 reprint last cited here is 4.95% on September 10, 2026, updated September 11. Today’s close gets a dated citation when it is sourced.
Can a Monday residual assume the September FOMC already voted?
You can show a sensitivity. You cannot replace 4.95%. The meeting is September 15–16. A residual cannot vote.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (September 15–16, 2026 meeting; statement on the second day); FRED DGS10 (10-year CMT 4.95% on September 10, 2026; 4.83% on September 9; 4.80% on September 8; updated September 11, 2026); U.S. Treasury daily yield curve (source series for the CMT; Monday close not sourced here); Mortgage News Daily daily rate index (30-year analog 7.12% as of September 11, 2026).