Commercial & land desk · September 15, 2026
A day-one residual is not Wednesday’s vote
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Tuesday’s CRE note is about the leftover that still has to pencil on a sourced curve while the committee sits. Monday already said a Monday open is not the FOMC close. Treasury’s daily yield curve now gives this desk Monday’s close: the 10-year CMT was 4.97% on September 14, after 4.96% on September 11 and 4.95% on September 10. That is a dated curve. It is not Wednesday’s statement. A residual cannot vote on day one.
Takeout starts at the cited 10-year
4.73% is the last named 10-year CMT, August 28. 6.81% is the last named daily 30-year, used here only as analog pressure. A residual still needs a real spread.
What can a Tuesday package recut, and what can it not assume?
You can rerun sellout, NOI, and land leftover off 4.97% plus a spread a lender has actually granted. You can show a sensitivity if the 10-year moves after September 16. You cannot treat a chat-room open, a first-day leak, or a hoped-for cut as Treasury’s dated close. Today’s session is open. Today’s close is not sourced here.
Friday already said a pre-FOMC residual is not a policy vote. Saturday already said a weekend residual cannot price the FOMC. The residential 7.17% 30-year as of September 14 is analog pressure on housing-adjacent assets. August flash PMI at 56 remains a goods-activity read, not a construction coupon. Invent none of those as a meeting-day cap rate.
What this desk will not treat as this morning’s mark-to-market
This desk will not invent a city cap-rate survey, a CMBS print, or a term sheet that assumes the 10-year already closed 40 basis points lower because the committee convened. Public REIT filings and the Fed SLOOS remain the places for named credit facts when they publish.
If Treasury publishes a newer dated weekday curve after today’s session or after the statement, recut the residual then. Until that close is sourced here, a package that only works at 4.20% is still a hope vote.
FAQ
What 10-year CMT close should a Tuesday residual use on FOMC day one?
Treasury’s daily yield curve listed the 10-year CMT at 4.97% on September 14, 2026. Today’s close gets a dated citation when it is sourced. The statement is still Wednesday.
Can a day-one residual assume the September FOMC already voted?
You can show a sensitivity. You cannot replace 4.97%. The meeting is September 15–16. A residual cannot vote.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (September 15–16, 2026 meeting; statement on the second day); U.S. Treasury daily yield curve (10-year CMT 4.97% on September 14, 2026; 4.96% on September 11; 4.95% on September 10; Tuesday close not sourced); FRED DGS10 (H.15 reprint of the 10-year CMT; use Treasury’s dated close cited above); Mortgage News Daily daily rate index (30-year analog 7.17% as of September 14, 2026).