Mortgage rates jump to 6.81% after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech

There is no new official mortgage-rate print on Saturday. Lenders are still pricing off Friday. Mortgage News Daily's daily index closed Friday at 6.81% for a top-tier 30-year fixed, up 0.06 from Thursday's 6.75%. That is the highest daily print in just over three weeks. The next official number is Monday afternoon.

What is the latest official mortgage rate?

As of Friday, August 28:

• 30-year fixed: 6.81% (+0.06)
• 15-year fixed: 6.35% (+0.03)
• 30-year jumbo: 6.90% (+0.02)
• 7/6 ARM: 6.33% (+0.03)
• 30-year FHA: 6.37% (+0.03)
• 30-year VA: 6.37% (+0.02)

The 15-year sits at the top of its 52-week range. The 30-year is still just below its 52-week high of 6.85%.

Mortgage News Daily's daily 30-year path this week:

• Monday 8/24: 6.78%
• Tuesday 8/25: 6.74% (oil dip)
• Wednesday 8/26: 6.75%
• Thursday 8/27: 6.75%
• Friday 8/28: 6.81% (+0.06)

That is +0.04 versus last Friday's 6.77%. Tuesday's oil drop did not survive the week. Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year (August 27) is 6.66%. The new MBA weekly (August 26) is 6.78%. Different samples. The series this site tracks day to day is Mortgage News Daily.

The 10-year Treasury CMT closed Friday at 4.73%, up 6 basis points from Thursday's 4.67%. The 2-year, which tracks Fed hike odds more closely, jumped to 4.34% from 4.20%. Bond markets are closed until Monday.

Individual lender quotes differ from a national index. A locked rate is not a closed loan.

Why did Friday's market sell off?

Rates were fairly flat before 10 a.m. ET. Then Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole. The market took a hawkish message and sold bonds immediately. Mortgage News Daily said the average lender raised rates after that move. Current-coupon MBS finished about 3/8 of a point worse. The official index jumped 0.06.

Warsh said inflation is still too high and that the Fed's 2% PCE target is a firm, fixed goal. July headline PCE is 3.7%. He said this summer's readings were better than expected, but they do not show that underlying trends have meaningfully improved. The line that stuck: if policymakers are not confident inflation is moving to target clearly and at sufficient speed, "we have work to do."

He also said the Fed should not indulge a regime where traders look to the central bank for their next trade. Less forward guidance, same 2% target. Markets priced a higher chance of a hike before year-end. That is why the 2-year moved more than the 10-year.

Did Friday's other data matter?

Chicago PMI cratered to 47.1 in August from 57.6 in July, versus a survey near 58. Below 50 is contraction. It was the weakest reading since December and the first below 50 since April. That kind of miss usually helps bonds. It did not, because Warsh spoke 15 minutes later.

The final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was 51.7, up from a 51.0 preliminary but down from 55.2 in July. Consumers are still sour. That did not override the speech either.

What should buyers watch next week?

The daily index does not print Saturday or Sunday. Monday's first new number is around 4 p.m. ET. Weekend locks still price off Friday's worse market.

Fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year more than the fed funds rate. Friday raised the odds that long yields stay firm into September. A fade would need either softer labor data or a market that decides Warsh's words were already priced. Until then, 6.81% is the last official print.

What does this mean if you are buying or refinancing?

The week ended at a three-week high. If a payment already works at 6.81%, locking takes Friday's print off the table. Waiting is a bet that next week's data fades the hawkish Jackson Hole read.

Run a payment estimate, then look at purchase or refinance options. See when refinancing beats waiting.

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