Mortgage rates rise to 6.76%, highest in just over a week

The official national 30-year fixed closed Thursday at 6.76%, up 0.04 from Wednesday's 6.72%. That is the highest daily print in just over a week (last Thursday was 6.69%). Friday's official index is not out until about 4 p.m. ET. Early Friday, mortgage-backed bonds are a bit stronger, which can mean a modestly better rate day if it holds.

Did mortgage rates go up on Thursday?

Yes. Mortgage News Daily's daily index as of August 20:

• 30-year fixed: 6.76% (+0.04)
• 15-year fixed: 6.30% (+0.03)
• 30-year jumbo: 6.87% (+0.02)
• 7/6 ARM: 6.36% (+0.05)
• 30-year FHA: 6.31% (+0.01)
• 30-year VA: 6.33% (+0.01)

The week so far: last Thursday 6.69, Friday 6.71, Monday 6.73, Tuesday 6.75, Wednesday 6.72, Thursday 6.76.

Freddie Mac's new weekly 30-year (August 20) is 6.65%, down 0.02. The 15-year weekly is 5.95%. That weekly survey can look a little easier even when the daily index is higher than it was a week ago.

Individual lender quotes differ from a national index. A locked rate is not a closed loan.

Why did rates rise after Wednesday's buyback bounce?

Wednesday's drop was about lower oil and Treasury expanding longer-term buybacks. Thursday's bump was more about fuel prices than a reversal of that buyback news. Oil and the 10-year were at the day's lows around 1 a.m. ET. Oil rose through 8 a.m., Treasury yields followed, and both peaked together, then drifted sideways.

The 10-year finished Thursday at 4.70%, up 6 basis points from Wednesday's 4.65% close, with the note down 15/32 in price.

What did the labor and Philly Fed reports show?

Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 206,000, below the 210,000 estimate. Continuing claims rose to about 1.8 million, roughly in line with forecasts. Claims are still near historically low levels, which gives the Fed little reason to worry about the jobs side of its mandate.

The Philadelphia Fed's August business-outlook index rose to 47.4 from 41.4. About 57% of firms reported higher activity. The employment index jumped 18 points to 27.9, the highest since mid-2022. It fits a run of regional Fed surveys showing manufacturing growth.

What are Fed officials saying?

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Treasury market is signaling that policy is in a good place, and she did not see an urgent case for preemptive rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem was more hawkish: inflation is still too high, policy is still accommodative, and more gradual increases now would be less disruptive than larger, abrupt hikes later.

Are mortgage rates heading lower on Friday?

Early Friday, Treasury yields were slightly lower across the curve, and current-coupon MBS prices were about 3/32 better than Thursday's close. Mortgage News Daily's morning trend is "increased slightly," which can mean a small improvement in rates if it holds into the afternoon lock window.

August flash PMI readings are due at 9:45 a.m. ET (manufacturing survey 53.9, services 54.0, composite 54.0). They had not printed when the morning recap went out.

What does this mean if you are buying or refinancing?

Thursday gave back Wednesday's improvement. Friday morning is slightly better. If a payment already works, locking takes the known 6.76% backdrop off the table. Waiting is a bet that this morning's small MBS bid sticks.

Run a payment estimate, then look at purchase or refinance options. See when refinancing beats waiting.

FAQ