Commercial & land desk · August 28, 2026
Warsh can move the 10-year. Brochure NOI cannot.
Last updated:
Friday’s commercial brief is a Treasury-risk day. Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote can move the 10-year CMT and commercial takeout spreads before the weekend. A offering-memorandum NOI cannot. The last official national 30-year residential index is 6.75% as of August 27. Treat that as analog, not as a CRE quote.
What a hawkish Jackson Hole speech does to CRE bids
A hawkish speech raises the odds that the 10-year stays elevated into the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Higher risk-free yields push exit cap rates wider unless NOI grows enough to offset. Most marketing decks assume the offset. Public markets do not have to.
Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year is 6.66% as of August 27. Residential and commercial credit can diverge, but they share the Treasury curve. Do not lock a land basis to a teaser that a bank has not offered.
What this desk will cite after the close
Saturday’s note can cite Friday’s official 10-year CMT if Treasury publishes it. This Friday morning note does not invent that close. It also does not invent a cap-rate survey for office, industrial, or multifamily.
FAQ
Does Fast Home Loan Daily quote cap rates on August 28?
No. This desk will not invent a city or sector cap-rate print. Price off the Treasury curve and named public filings.
Is the 6.75% 30-year a construction loan rate?
No. It is a national residential daily index as of August 27, 2026. Construction and permanent CRE loans are separate products this site does not originate.
Sources: Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole calendar (Warsh keynote, August 28, 2026); Mortgage News Daily daily rate index (30-year 6.75% as of August 27, 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly 30-year 6.66% as of August 27, 2026); U.S. Treasury yield curve (daily CMT; Friday close cited on the Saturday note).