Commercial & land desk · August 26, 2026
PCE week still prices land off Treasuries
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Wednesday’s land and CRE note is an inflation-risk brief, not a new lot-sales survey. July PCE stayed at 3.7%. Sticky inflation keeps the 10-year from being a hope trade. Finished lots and income property still have to pencil against takeout the market will fund, not against a brochure yield.
Why PCE matters for land more than a listing flyer
Land is a long-duration asset. The discount rate is a Treasury plus a project spread. A 3.7% PCE print tells you the Federal Reserve still has an inflation problem into the September FOMC. It does not tell you what a specific parcel sold for.
Tuesday’s national 30-year daily index fell to 6.74% as of August 25 when oil dropped. CRE readers should not treat that dip as a permanent takeout. Wednesday’s tape can give it back if PCE keeps bonds heavy.
What public series this desk will wait for
Bank lending standards belong in the Fed SLOOS. Commercial mortgage performance belongs in public CMBS and bank call-report commentary when those filings publish. This note does not invent a delinquency rate or a land-price index for Wednesday.
FAQ
Did July PCE include a land-price index?
No. PCE is an inflation series. Land and CRE still need Treasury yields, NOI, and a lender who will close. This publication will not invent a lot-price print.
Is a 6.74% 30-year a commercial takeout quote?
No. It is a national residential daily index as of August 25, 2026. Use it as analog context only.
Sources: BEA PCE (as reported on the August 26 lending note) (July PCE 3.7%); Mortgage News Daily daily rate index (30-year 6.74% as of August 25, 2026); U.S. Treasury yield curve (daily CMT calendar).