Commercial & land desk · August 30, 2026
CRE and land still price off the 10-year, not a brochure cap rate
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Sunday is not a Treasury day. The reference that still sets takeout cost is Friday’s 10-year constant maturity at 4.73%, with the 2-year at 4.34%. Land and income property have to clear that curve.
A cap rate in a pitch deck is a wish until it sits on top of a financing rate. When the 10-year is 4.73% and the national 30-year residential index is 6.81%, construction and bridge takeout is not pricing like 2021. That gap is the commercial brief. It does not require a made-up office vacancy for a named suburb.
Bank willingness is the second official read. The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey asks banks whether they are tightening or easing CRE and C&I standards. That survey is the citable series for “will the bank do this land deal.” We will quote the next SLOOS when it is published. We will not write a fictional tightening percentage to fill a Monday hole.
Land is residual. If vertical cost and takeout yield do not leave basis for the dirt, the dirt does not trade — or it trades at a write-down. Development notes on this desk will keep saying that until a public print shows otherwise. Multifamily, industrial, and retail each have their own rent tape; they share the same Treasury denominator.
Residential purchase rates still leak into this beat when for-sale housing and for-rent housing compete for the same household. See the lending desk for the 6.81% daily index and the property-management desk for occupancy. This page stays on financing cost.
FAQ
Why does the 10-year Treasury matter for CRE and land?
Takeout debt, cap-rate talk, and residual land value all start from a risk-free reference. Friday’s 10-year CMT was 4.73%.
Which official series does this desk watch?
The Treasury daily yield curve, the Fed SLOOS, and dated CMBS issuance. This note does not invent a cap-rate survey.
Does Fast Home Loan arrange commercial or land loans?
No. This is market commentary.
Sources: U.S. Treasury daily yield curve (10-year CMT August 28, 2026: 4.73%; 2-year CMT August 28: 4.34%); Mortgage News Daily daily 30-year index (6.81% as of August 28); Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey calendar; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (August 27: 6.66%).